Sentiment Forecast
4-week forward projection · Trend velocity modeling · Circuit breaker thresholds · Intervention scenarios
Approaching Breaker
3
of 4 initiatives
Avg Score — No Action
44
Week 4 projection
Avg Score — Intervene
55
Week 4 with all interventions
Most Urgent
AI Adoption &
Breaker in ~2w
M365 Copilot Rollout
Moderate ConfidenceVelocity: -1.5pp/wk
52
Current
46
Week 4 (No Action)
-6pp
58
Week 4 (Intervene)
+6pp
Circuit Breaker @ 45/100 — Forced Compliance ThresholdBreach in ~3w at current velocity
Actual No Action With Intervention Confidence Band
Recommended Interventions (2)
ITSM Platform Migration
High ConfidenceVelocity: +1.2pp/wk
67
Current
71
Week 4 (No Action)
+4pp
76
Week 4 (Intervene)
+9pp
Circuit Breaker @ 55/100 — Champion Exhaustion ThresholdNo breach projected
Actual No Action With Intervention Confidence Band
Recommended Interventions (1)
Technology Org Restructure
Low ConfidenceVelocity: -1.8pp/wk
34
Current
27
Week 4 (No Action)
-7pp
38
Week 4 (Intervene)
+4pp
Circuit Breaker @ 30/100 — Org Fragmentation ThresholdBreach in ~3w at current velocity
Actual No Action With Intervention Confidence Band
Recommended Interventions (2)
AI Adoption & Governance (Copilot)
Conflicted SignalsVelocity: -2.1pp/wk
41
Current
33
Week 4 (No Action)
-8pp
46
Week 4 (Intervene)
+5pp
Circuit Breaker @ 35/100 — Cascade Amplification ThresholdBreach in ~2w at current velocity
Actual No Action With Intervention Confidence Band
Recommended Interventions (2)
Forecast Methodology
Projections use a dampened linear velocity model: each week's velocity is reduced by a dampening factor (8–18% depending on initiative volatility) to account for natural mean-reversion. Confidence bands widen by 15% per forecast week to reflect compounding uncertainty. Intervention lifts are modeled as additive weekly gains beginning after the specified lag period. All projections are based on 7 weeks of historical composite sentiment data aggregated across Jira, Slack, Glint, ServiceNow, and M365 signals.